Deterministic case: assuming there is no uncertainty to consider, find the best set of projects…
Deterministic case: assuming there is no uncertainty to consider, find the best set of projects… | savvyessaywriters.org
1. Deterministic case: assuming there is no uncertainty to consider, find the best set of projects to invest for Cliff. 2. Risk evaluation: Now all of the capital expenditures in the data file shall be replaced with beta-PERT distributions. The values in the data file should be the most likely values, and each minimum and maximum for the distribution should be, respectively, 15% below and 30% above the most likely value. The NPVs should also be modelled with beta-PERT distributions, using the values in the data file as most likely values. However, their minimum and maximum values should be, respectively, 20% below and 15% above the most likely value. Given the set of projects selected in question 1, a. Simulate the probability distribution of total NPV, and the probability that each budget is satisfied. For example, the results should include the fraction of iterations where total capital expenditures for the three-year period are no greater than $10 billion. b. Compare the sample average of total NPV and its confidence interval with the exact expectation of total NPV 3. Recommend a set of projects to invest for Cliff under the uncertainties considered in question 2. The objective is to maximize the mean total NPV. There shall be a probability constraint on each
Attachments:
assessment4-d….xlsx
Assessment-4…..docx
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